Calculateur de Victoires Pythagoriciennes
Estimez le nombre de victoires attendues avec la formule pythagoricienne.
Expected Win %
0.798
Expected Win % vs Total Points Scored
Formule
## How the Pythagorean Win Formula Works ### Formula **Expected Win % = PF^exp / (PF^exp + PA^exp)** Where PF = Points For, PA = Points Against, and exp is the Pythagorean exponent. ### Typical Exponents - **MLB**: 1.83 - **NFL**: 2.37 - **NBA**: 14 - **NHL**: 2.05 Teams that significantly outperform their Pythagorean expectation often regress toward the expected record in subsequent seasons.
Exemple Résolu
NBA team: 750 points scored, 680 allowed through 82 games (exponent 14).
- 01Win % = 750^14 / (750^14 + 680^14)
- 02This evaluates to approximately 0.769
- 03Expected wins = 0.769 * 82 = 63.1 wins
- 04Expected losses = 82 - 63.1 = 18.9
- 05Avg point diff = (750 - 680) / 82 = 0.9 per game
Questions Fréquentes
Why different exponents for different sports?
Higher-scoring sports like basketball need larger exponents because individual game outcomes are less random. Baseball, with fewer runs, uses a smaller exponent.
What does it mean to over- or under-perform Pythagorean?
A team winning more than expected may be winning close games at an unsustainable rate (luck in clutch situations). They often regress the next year.
How accurate is the Pythagorean formula?
It is remarkably accurate over a full season. Expected wins typically predict actual wins within 2-4 games for most teams.
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