Exponential Smoothing Calculator

Apply single exponential smoothing to forecast the next value in a time series by weighting recent observations more heavily.

Next Forecast

113.0000

Forecast Error10.0000
Adjustment (alpha * error)3.0000

Next Forecast vs Latest Actual Value

सूत्र देखें →

सूत्र

## How to Apply Exponential Smoothing ### Formula **F(t+1) = alpha * A(t) + (1 - alpha) * F(t)** Equivalently: F(t+1) = F(t) + alpha * (A(t) - F(t)) Exponential smoothing updates the forecast by adding a fraction (alpha) of the latest forecast error. Alpha near 1 means the forecast reacts quickly to changes; alpha near 0 means it changes slowly. All past data contributes, with exponentially decreasing weights.

हल किया गया उदाहरण

Previous forecast = 110, actual = 120, alpha = 0.3.

  1. 01Error = 120 - 110 = 10
  2. 02Adjustment = 0.3 * 10 = 3
  3. 03New forecast = 110 + 3 = 113
  4. 04Or equivalently: 0.3 * 120 + 0.7 * 110 = 36 + 77 = 113