Calculateur de Buts Attendus au Football — Formule
## Expected Goals (xG) in Soccer
Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of scoring chances by assigning each shot a probability of being scored based on historical data.
### Simplified xG Values
- **Inside box**: ~0.12 xG per shot
- **Outside box**: ~0.03 xG per shot
- **Headers**: ~0.06 xG per shot
- **Penalties**: ~0.76 xG per penalty
**Total xG = Sum of all shot xG values**
Professional xG models use 10+ variables including exact location, body part, assist type, game state, and goalkeeper position.
Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of scoring chances by assigning each shot a probability of being scored based on historical data.
### Simplified xG Values
- **Inside box**: ~0.12 xG per shot
- **Outside box**: ~0.03 xG per shot
- **Headers**: ~0.06 xG per shot
- **Penalties**: ~0.76 xG per penalty
**Total xG = Sum of all shot xG values**
Professional xG models use 10+ variables including exact location, body part, assist type, game state, and goalkeeper position.
Exemple Résolu
A team takes 8 shots inside the box, 5 outside, 3 headers, and 1 penalty.
- Inside box xG = 8 x 0.12 = 0.96
- Outside box xG = 5 x 0.03 = 0.15
- Headers xG = 3 x 0.06 = 0.18
- Penalties xG = 1 x 0.76 = 0.76
- Total xG = 0.96 + 0.15 + 0.18 + 0.76 = 2.05