Calculadora de Penalización por Adivinar Gratis
Calcula el impacto de adivinar en exámenes con penalización. Evalúa si vale la pena arriesgar.
Expected Points from Guessing
0.63
Expected Points from Guessing vs Number of Guesses
Fórmula
## How to Calculate Guessing Penalty Impact When a test penalizes wrong answers, random guessing has an expected value. ### Formula **Expected Gain = Guesses x (P(correct) x 1 - P(wrong) x Penalty)** Where P(correct) = 1 / Number of Choices If the penalty equals 1/(choices-1), guessing has zero expected value.
Ejemplo Resuelto
A student randomly guesses on 10 questions with 4 choices each and a 0.25 penalty.
- 01P(correct) = 1/4 = 0.25
- 02P(wrong) = 3/4 = 0.75
- 03Expected gain per guess = 0.25 x 1 - 0.75 x 0.25 = 0.25 - 0.1875 = 0.0625
- 04Total expected gain = 10 x 0.0625 = 0.625 points
Preguntas Frecuentes
Should I guess on the SAT?
The current SAT has no guessing penalty, so you should always answer every question. Older SAT versions had a 0.25-point penalty.
When is guessing worth it with a penalty?
If you can eliminate even one choice, guessing becomes more favorable. With 4 choices and 1 eliminated, expected gain per guess rises significantly.
What penalty makes guessing neutral?
A penalty of 1/(choices - 1) makes random guessing have zero expected value. For 4 choices, that is 1/3 or about 0.333.