Exponential Smoothing Calculator — Formula
## How to Apply Exponential Smoothing
### Formula
**F(t+1) = alpha * A(t) + (1 - alpha) * F(t)**
Equivalently: F(t+1) = F(t) + alpha * (A(t) - F(t))
Exponential smoothing updates the forecast by adding a fraction (alpha) of the latest forecast error. Alpha near 1 means the forecast reacts quickly to changes; alpha near 0 means it changes slowly. All past data contributes, with exponentially decreasing weights.
### Formula
**F(t+1) = alpha * A(t) + (1 - alpha) * F(t)**
Equivalently: F(t+1) = F(t) + alpha * (A(t) - F(t))
Exponential smoothing updates the forecast by adding a fraction (alpha) of the latest forecast error. Alpha near 1 means the forecast reacts quickly to changes; alpha near 0 means it changes slowly. All past data contributes, with exponentially decreasing weights.
Esempio Risolto
Previous forecast = 110, actual = 120, alpha = 0.3.
- Error = 120 - 110 = 10
- Adjustment = 0.3 * 10 = 3
- New forecast = 110 + 3 = 113
- Or equivalently: 0.3 * 120 + 0.7 * 110 = 36 + 77 = 113