Climate Sensitivity Calculator Formula

Understand the math behind the climate sensitivity calculator. Each variable explained with a worked example.

Formulas Used

Equilibrium Temperature Change

temp_change = radiative_forcing * sensitivity_param

Temperature Change (Fahrenheit)

temp_change_f = radiative_forcing * sensitivity_param * 1.8

Variables

VariableDescriptionDefault
radiative_forcingRadiative Forcing(W/m²)3.7
sensitivity_paramClimate Sensitivity Parameter(°C per W/m²)0.8

How It Works

Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity

Climate sensitivity tells us how much the global average temperature will eventually rise for a given radiative forcing.

Formula

Delta T = Delta F x lambda

Where Delta F is radiative forcing (W/m²) and lambda is the climate sensitivity parameter (°C per W/m²). The IPCC best estimate for doubling CO2 (3.7 W/m²) is about 3°C, giving lambda around 0.8.

Worked Example

A doubling of CO2 produces 3.7 W/m² of forcing with a sensitivity of 0.8 °C per W/m².

radiative_forcing = 3.7sensitivity_param = 0.8
  1. 01Temperature change = 3.7 x 0.8 = 2.96 °C
  2. 02In Fahrenheit: 2.96 x 1.8 = 5.33 °F

Ready to run the numbers?

Open Climate Sensitivity Calculator