Free Exponential Smoothing Calculator
Apply single exponential smoothing to forecast the next value in a time series by weighting recent observations more heavily.
Next Forecast
113.0000
Next Forecast vs Latest Actual Value
How to Apply Exponential Smoothing
Formula
F(t+1) = alpha * A(t) + (1 - alpha) * F(t)
Equivalently: F(t+1) = F(t) + alpha * (A(t) - F(t))
Exponential smoothing updates the forecast by adding a fraction (alpha) of the latest forecast error. Alpha near 1 means the forecast reacts quickly to changes; alpha near 0 means it changes slowly. All past data contributes, with exponentially decreasing weights.
Example Calculation
Previous forecast = 110, actual = 120, alpha = 0.3.
- 01Error = 120 - 110 = 10
- 02Adjustment = 0.3 * 10 = 3
- 03New forecast = 110 + 3 = 113
- 04Or equivalently: 0.3 * 120 + 0.7 * 110 = 36 + 77 = 113
Frequently Asked Questions
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