Pythagorean Win Calculator
Estimate expected win percentage from points scored and points allowed using the Pythagorean expectation formula.
Expected Win %
0.798
Expected Wins65.4
Expected Losses16.6
Avg Point Differential0.9
Expected Win % vs Total Points Scored
How the Pythagorean Win Formula Works
Formula
Expected Win % = PF^exp / (PF^exp + PA^exp)
Where PF = Points For, PA = Points Against, and exp is the Pythagorean exponent.
Typical Exponents
Teams that significantly outperform their Pythagorean expectation often regress toward the expected record in subsequent seasons.
Example Calculation
NBA team: 750 points scored, 680 allowed through 82 games (exponent 14).
- 01Win % = 750^14 / (750^14 + 680^14)
- 02This evaluates to approximately 0.769
- 03Expected wins = 0.769 * 82 = 63.1 wins
- 04Expected losses = 82 - 63.1 = 18.9
- 05Avg point diff = (750 - 680) / 82 = 0.9 per game
Frequently Asked Questions
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