Overtraining Risk Score Formula
Understand the math behind the overtraining risk score. Each variable explained with a worked example.
Formulas Used
Acute:Chronic Workload Ratio
acute_chronic_ratio = acwrOvertraining Risk Score
risk_score = min(acwr * 50 + sleep_penalty, 100)Weekly Load Increase
weekly_increase_pct = (weekly_hours - avg_weekly_hours) / avg_weekly_hours * 100Variables
| Variable | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|
weekly_hours | Training Hours This Week(hours) | 8 |
avg_weekly_hours | Average Weekly Hours (last 4 weeks)(hours) | 6 |
sleep_hours | Average Sleep per Night(hours) | 7 |
acwr | Derived value= weekly_hours / avg_weekly_hours | calculated |
sleep_penalty | Derived value= sleep_hours < 7 ? (7 - sleep_hours) * 10 : 0 | calculated |
How It Works
Acute:Chronic Workload Ratio (ACWR)
ACWR = Current Week Load / Average of Last 4 Weeks
The ACWR helps identify injury and overtraining risk.
Risk Zones
Poor sleep (under 7 hours) adds additional overtraining risk.
Worked Example
An athlete training 8 hours this week with a 4-week average of 6 hours, sleeping 7 hours per night.
- 01ACWR = 8 / 6 = 1.33
- 02Sleep penalty = 0 (7 hours is adequate)
- 03Risk score = 1.33 x 50 + 0 = 67 / 100
- 04Load increase = (8 - 6) / 6 x 100 = 33%
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a safe training load increase?
The 10% rule suggests increasing weekly training load by no more than 10% per week. An ACWR between 0.8 and 1.3 is considered the sweet spot.
What are signs of overtraining?
Persistent fatigue, declining performance, elevated resting heart rate, poor sleep, mood changes, frequent illness, and loss of motivation are common signs.
How does sleep affect overtraining risk?
Sleep is when most physical recovery occurs. Consistently sleeping under 7 hours significantly increases injury risk and delays recovery.
Ready to run the numbers?
Open Overtraining Risk Score