Overtraining Risk Score Formula

Understand the math behind the overtraining risk score. Each variable explained with a worked example.

Use the Overtraining Risk Score

Formulas Used

Acute:Chronic Workload Ratio

acute_chronic_ratio = acwr

Overtraining Risk Score

risk_score = min(acwr * 50 + sleep_penalty, 100)

Weekly Load Increase

weekly_increase_pct = (weekly_hours - avg_weekly_hours) / avg_weekly_hours * 100

Variables

VariableDescriptionDefault
weekly_hoursTraining Hours This Week(hours)8
avg_weekly_hoursAverage Weekly Hours (last 4 weeks)(hours)6
sleep_hoursAverage Sleep per Night(hours)7
acwrDerived value= weekly_hours / avg_weekly_hourscalculated
sleep_penaltyDerived value= sleep_hours < 7 ? (7 - sleep_hours) * 10 : 0calculated

How It Works

Acute:Chronic Workload Ratio (ACWR)

ACWR = Current Week Load / Average of Last 4 Weeks

The ACWR helps identify injury and overtraining risk.

Risk Zones

| ACWR | Risk | |---|---| | 0.8 - 1.3 | Sweet spot (low risk) | | 1.3 - 1.5 | Moderate risk | | >1.5 | High risk | | <0.8 | Detraining zone |

Poor sleep (under 7 hours) adds additional overtraining risk.

Worked Example

An athlete training 8 hours this week with a 4-week average of 6 hours, sleeping 7 hours per night.

weekly_hours = 8avg_weekly_hours = 6sleep_hours = 7
  1. 01ACWR = 8 / 6 = 1.33
  2. 02Sleep penalty = 0 (7 hours is adequate)
  3. 03Risk score = 1.33 x 50 + 0 = 67 / 100
  4. 04Load increase = (8 - 6) / 6 x 100 = 33%

Ready to run the numbers?

Open Overtraining Risk Score