Sea Level Rise Estimate Calculator Formula
Understand the math behind the sea level rise estimate calculator. Each variable explained with a worked example.
Formulas Used
Projected Rise
rise_mm = total_rate * yearsProjected Rise
rise_cm = total_rate * years / 10Projected Rise
rise_inches = total_rate * years / 25.4Variables
| Variable | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|
thermal_rate | Thermal Expansion Rate(mm/year) | 1.4 |
ice_melt_rate | Ice Melt Contribution Rate(mm/year) | 2.2 |
years | Projection Period(years) | 50 |
total_rate | Derived value= thermal_rate + ice_melt_rate | calculated |
How It Works
Estimating Sea Level Rise
Sea level rise comes from two main sources: thermal expansion of warming ocean water and meltwater from glaciers and ice sheets.
Formula
Total Rise (mm) = (Thermal Rate + Ice Melt Rate) x Years
Current observations show about 3.6 mm/year of total rise, with the rate accelerating. Thermal expansion accounts for roughly 40% and ice melt for 60%.
Worked Example
Thermal expansion adds 1.4 mm/year and ice melt adds 2.2 mm/year. Project 50 years forward.
thermal_rate = 1.4ice_melt_rate = 2.2years = 50
- 01Total rate = 1.4 + 2.2 = 3.6 mm/year
- 02Rise over 50 years = 3.6 x 50 = 180 mm
- 03In centimeters: 180 / 10 = 18 cm
- 04In inches: 180 / 25.4 = 7.09 inches
Ready to run the numbers?
Open Sea Level Rise Estimate Calculator