海平面上升估算器
使用海平面上升估算器预测不同气候情景下的海平面变化。输入温升和冰盖融化参数，估算未来数十年的海平面上升幅度，评估沿海地区的洪涝风险。
Projected Rise
180.0 mm
Projected Rise vs Projection Period
公式
Estimating Sea Level Rise
Sea level rise comes from two main sources: thermal expansion of warming ocean water and meltwater from glaciers and ice sheets.
Formula
Total Rise (mm) = (Thermal Rate + Ice Melt Rate) x Years
Current observations show about 3.6 mm/year of total rise, with the rate accelerating. Thermal expansion accounts for roughly 40% and ice melt for 60%.
计算示例
Thermal expansion adds 1.4 mm/year and ice melt adds 2.2 mm/year. Project 50 years forward.
- 01Total rate = 1.4 + 2.2 = 3.6 mm/year
- 02Rise over 50 years = 3.6 x 50 = 180 mm
- 03In centimeters: 180 / 10 = 18 cm
- 04In inches: 180 / 25.4 = 7.09 inches
常见问题
Is this a linear projection?
This calculator uses a linear rate, but actual sea level rise is accelerating. Satellite data show the rate has increased from about 2.5 mm/year in the 1990s to over 4 mm/year today.
What is thermal expansion?
As ocean water absorbs heat, it expands in volume. This thermal expansion has been the largest contributor to sea level rise historically, though ice melt is now dominant.
How much would seas rise if all ice melted?
If all land ice melted, seas would rise approximately 65 meters (213 feet). The Greenland ice sheet alone holds about 7.2 meters of potential rise.